With the continuing war in Ukraine, signs may point to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. With the US’s attention almost fully focused toward Russia’s war against Ukraine, China has been showing increased interest and willingness to invade their longtime enemy, Taiwan. But with a lot of signs pointing toward a potential invasion it is still unclear if such an event has an impact on the US.

The background to the China-Taiwan conflict goes back almost 100 years, but the most poignant activity took place in 1949. During this year, after the People’s Republic of China won the Chinese Civil War, the losers, which were the Republic of China, fled to the island of Taiwan. Since then, mostly thanks to U.S. support, Taiwan or the Republic of China has remained independent. China has threatened to invade Taiwan countless times,believing the nation to be Chinese land. Tensions in the past 10 years have steadily declined, but China’s voiced support of the invasion of Ukraine has reignited differences. 

Although the coverage of the matter has made it seem like war is imminent, it may still be  far from happening. President Biden told reporters in an interview, “My expectation is it will not happen…..It will not be attempted” . And because of Biden and the US’s statements that they will defend Taiwan, Chinese diplomats warn of a “dangerous situation” forming over Taiwan. And that “if the US side insists on playing the Taiwan card….it will certainly lead to a dangerous situation.”

If, on the other hand, it does happen, President Biden also stated that the “US would respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan.” The nation’s European allies have responded in almost all the same way. Overall no matter how unlikely it is to take place, a war against Taiwan would be devastating for the over 23 million people that live there and would have massive consequences on international relations.